
Groundhogs are Liars
Once a year, he comes to answer our questions. Will winter linger? Will the cold continue to wither our garden plants? Will spring come early?
To coin a phrase, only the shadow knows … or does it?
Groundhog Day is upon us. In fact, February 2, 2019 marks Punxsutawney Phil‘s 133rd prediction. According to the myth, if he sees his shadow, we can expect six more weeks of winter. Otherwise, spring will come early. This year, will he see his shadow? Does it matter? Perhaps we need to accept that …

In Southwest Florida, we are accustomed to mild weather. When Groundhog’s Day comes around, many of us hope that no shadow will be seen. Sure, we know that a groundhog’s shadow is no accurate predictor of the weather, but winter’s cold snaps are brutal compared to our tropical climate. When Groundhog’s Day rolls around, who doesn’t want a glimmer of hope? But how often does Punxsutawney Phil get it wrong? Does science do much better?
Punxsutawney Phil: The Shade of it All
Historically, Punxsutawney Phil has a poor track record. In an interview with Life’s Little Mysteries, a sister site of www.livescience.com, Tim Roche, a meteorologist at Weather Underground, explains that Phil’s accuracy is pretty low. In fact, since 1969, Roche notes that the groundhog’s predictions have only been accurate about 36 percent of the time! So, if the groundhog isn’t going to help us, who will?
Science to the Rescue?
When it comes to predicting winter’s behavior, meteorologists have a bit of an edge over good old Punxsutawney Phil. Instead of relying on a shadow, meteorologists look to multiple factors. The jet stream , a barrier for hot and cold air, is one such factor. Its path determines when and where cold weather falls. However, the jet stream doesn’t act alone. It is influenced by multiple weather systems and conditions all over the world!
